It’s not surprising that a lot of climate change studies are published just at the moment that politicians of the world have jumped on their private planes to talk about something most of them don’t even believe in anymore. But you must have guts (or be really stupid) to make all kinds of wild statements about El Nino, a weather phenomenon that nobody understands.
Yes, there is an El Nino and it’s a bad one. El Nino’s happen and they happen at unpredictable intervals. Just as La Nina’s happen and nobody knows either when they will come. A few years ago we were told we would get another El Nino, but at the last moment it just turned around and disappeared. And nobody had a clue why. But scientists are usually not very bothered by their lack of knowledge. Especially climate scientists are good with making wild statements that are not based on anything.
“The two strongest El Ninos that we know of were in 1982-83 and 1997-98.” But how much do you know? How far do your records date back? And how reliable are those records? If you make statements based on “what you know”, while you know very little, you make a real fool of yoruself.
“In 1997, over 23,000 people were killed due to extreme events, droughts, floods, cyclones.” A completely meaningless statement. I don’t really doubt that more people die in natural disasters than 50 years ago, but that’s not because the weather phenomena are more extreme. It’s mainly because more and more people move to areas that are susceptible to floods and cyclones. It’s not so hard to see.
“is governed by a complex combination of atmospheric and oceanic events.” And that per definition makes it impossible to say anything intelligent about why it happens. For you can be sure that there are a lot more influences that scientists don’t know about. And how they all influence each other is not something scientists will ever understand. Because it’s way too complex.
“But what causes an El Nino to start “is the subject of debate,”” That basically means that scientists have different theories and nobody can prove that their theory is correct. For if someone could prove anything the debate would be over. Simple, isn’t it? After that we get an explanation of one of theories, but the problem is always the same: the theories start at a certain point, but they don’t know what caused that point. If weakinging of an eastern wind is the cause, then why does that wind weaken?
But no worries about such details: dr. Cai can tell us that it’s certain that El Nino is affected by climate change. He has no idea why El Nino happens, but this he is sure about. And I’m sure that he is just protecting his job. Someone with such an education really cannot be that stupid. “Under climate change the frequency of extreme El Nino events will double – to one every 10 years”. But climate change has already been going on for a long time and the number of El Nino’s has not increased. So why would that start to happen now? “making it more likely that El Ninos will develop.” More likely? So will it happen or will it just be more likely to happen? You cannot have your cake and eat it. Either you know it for sure or you think that it will happen.
Dr. Cai doesn’t tell what the other theories are for the developement of El Nino. I suppose he supports this theory and explaining all other theories would show too clearly that nobody has any idea. But it’s obvious that there is no consensus. And that per definition means that there is no consensus about how climate change will affect El Nino.
In a television program about that meeting in Paris I saw that in a worldwide survey 42% of the people had said that they aren’t worried about climate change. From the other 58% many people will give the desired answer, because they feel they have to be politically correct. But do they really worry about it? It’s highly unlikely. You cannot know how many people give answers that are not really true, but if 42% of the people give the undesired answer you can be sure that the real number is a lot higher. The story is over. The neverending list of scare stories that never happened have made people tired. Everyone has exaggerated and now people have turned away in high numbers. Any more scare stories will not change anything about that. Politicians will still try to keep the scam going for a while, but I expect that this all will have become part of the history books in ten years.